Why I'm Running for Congress
In order to make a difference, sometimes all you need to do is show up. During one of my medical school rotations through the Emergency Department, I had a memorable patient who rolled in via ambulance after being found unresponsive. The residents assessing her performed a basic respiratory and circulatory survey, drew some blood, and left her breathing shallowly in the trauma room.
It seemed odd to neglect a neurological exam on a patient with clearly altered mental status, so I dove in and performed a basic neuro exam. Among other findings, she had an absent corneal reflex and decorticate posturing on one side of her body -- both suggesting that her unresponsiveness was neurological. These findings were initially dismissed, but after further prodding, the team finally agreed to a head CT. Sure enough, this lady had suffered a large hemorrhagic stroke.
In this case, being "right" was merely an academic victory. Unfortunately, the damage was already done, intervention options were limited, and her prognosis was extremely poor. But my simply "showing up" and asking some basic questions about her neurological status resulted in a more rapid diagnosis.
I'm running for Congress to ask some basic, but tough, questions. Hopefully, it's not too late -- our nation is bleeding red ink, and our legislators and bureaucrats are ignoring the fact that we're slowly slipping into an economic coma. We can't let our government go through the motions and pretend that our current situation is like every other "slowdown", when in fact we are in completely uncharted waters, with an unprecedented set of challenges.
While there are entire books written about the economic dilemmas we face today, the bottom line is that we have never before been so dependent on our federal government, and our federal government has never before been so broke. There are two ways to look at how broke we are: the national debt as stated by the Treasury, and the national debt as would be reported if our government followed the same accounting rules as corporations. The Treasury claims a national debt of $9.4 trillion, but excludes the future costs of entitlements like Social Security and Medicare. These future entitlement liabilities cannot be ignored however, and raise the total debt to about $60 trillion on a GAAP basis. This number is like the blood pressure of 180/120 before that unfortunate lady had her massive hemorrhagic stroke -- it's very, very dangerous.
Here are three numbers for you to remember: 40, 50, and 60. World GDP outside the United States is approximately $40 trillion. All the private wealth in the United States is approximately $50 trillion. Again, our total federal obligations are approximately $60 trillion -- the national debt along with the present value of liabilities for Social Security, Medicare, and other entitlements. Does that make sense? Is that manageable?
No, it is not. David Walker, our recently-retired Comptroller General and director of the GAO has been saying as much for some time now. He even compares us with a vulnerable Roman empire. But are we doing anything to change our direction? No, we are not.
What happens if we stay on our current track? Alan Greenspan left us a clue in 2005, which is playing out before our eyes today. When asked in a Senate banking committee hearing about our ability to meet our massive Social Security obligations, he replied, "We can guarantee cash, but we cannot guarantee purchasing power."
While Greenspan is not known for clarity, this message is unambiguous: the government, through the Federal Reserve, can print as much paper money as necessary to pay off the bonds in the Social Security "trust fund" and otherwise provide "benefits". Printing that much paper (or electronic) money, however, will destroy what shreds of confidence are left in our fiat currency. So you'll get your promised Social Security dollars, but they won't actually buy anything.
Again, have you looked at your gas bill lately? In 2001, oil was around $28 per barrel, and gold was around $280 per ounce. One ounce of gold would purchase about ten barrels of oil. In 2008, oil is around $105 per barrel, and gold is around $930 per ounce. One ounce of gold purchases about nine barrels of oil. Clearly, the price of oil in gold hasn't gone up nearly as much as the price of oil in Federal Reserve Notes. Are you still saving "money" in Federal Reserve Notes?
So how do we save ourselves from a declining paper currency? There are no easy answers, but one important step in the right direction is simply to admit that we need a much smaller federal government. Specifically, a federal government that limits its spending to those powers enumerated in the Constitution. Is that tough medicine to take? Yes, it is. It's chemotherapy for a cancer that is killing us. But ignoring the problem will not make it go away.
While the G7 leaders meeting this weekend are talking a tough game about protecting the dollar, the record of central banks "defending" paper currencies is pretty dismal. Ultimately, people will find out what currencies are worth -- just watch Zimbabwe, where they recently began printing a note valued at 50 million Zim dollars. In a few weeks, that won't be worth anything either.
I'll leave you with one chart to ponder, considering the relationship between debt and GDP for the United States and the rest of the world:

Our liabilities are about four times our GDP. The rest of the world has liabilities of about half its GDP. Are we the guardian of liberty, and guardian of the world's reserve currency? Or do we have more in common with a banana republic?
Here's the message as shared with North Carolina's College Republicans this weekend:
[kml_flashembed movie="http://www.youtube.com/v/LTy2JFtom1M" width="425" height="350" wmode="transparent" /]
Please help us restore a Constitutional federal government, and complete our get-out-the-vote efforts before the May primary -- make a donation today.


Bravo Dr. Lawson! This is hard (and somewhat frightening) news, but more people need to hear this. The economy in this country is slowly (but more and more rapidly) unraveling. While most candidates pay lip service to 'change' and 'freedom', it's refreshing to see a person willing to step up and tell us the real truth about where our country is headed.
News of this kind, makes me think of people that refuse to get screened for cancer because they're afraid of what they might find out. While we all know that early detection is the best hope, some would prefer to live blissfully ignorant of the facts. Let's hope the people of NC are smart enough to embrace the idea that the time for action is NOW.
Good luck, and god-speed, in your campaign to diagnose the condition, and start the healing!
BJ,
US Gov't "obligations" as you have defined them, is not comparable to Rest-Of-World Gov't "debt." Other statistics I recall seeing (I'm going from memory here) have US "debt" being some fraction of annual GDP. As I recall, it's about the equivalent of one year's GDP. Not good, perhaps, but far less worrisome than a "debt" that is five times our GDP. Further, it is our debt that gives the Federal Reserve the ability to issue Treasury Bonds, and thereby control our money supply. Whenever the treasury sells bonds, they suck money out of the economy. If they keep the bonds in reserve, they are adding money to the economy. The rate at which they allow the money supply to grow is the link between Federal fiscal policy (Gov't spending), and monetary policy (interest rates). Unfortunately, it doesn't translate well into a tidy sound bite.
Regards, Bill R.
Bill - as you note, there are a number of ways to consider these statistics. The most "comforting" is simply the Treasury's reported national debt of ~$9 trillion relative to our annual GDP of ~$14 trillion, or a debt load of ~ 65% of our GDP. Unfortunately, however, that $9 trillion does not include the liabilities for our entitlement programs, which push the obligations up to ~$60 trillion. As the Treasury and GAO are fond of saying, "current trends are not sustainable."
The Treasury chooses not to include these long-term liabilities "on the balance sheet" since theoretically the demands of these entitlement programs are subject to change. Like Enron, however, we must face up to these obligations. We cannot pretend they do not exist, lest we meet the same fate.
How is our nation's debt not comparable to government debt issued by other countries? Are we somehow "special" as guardian of the world's reserve currency? We've enjoyed that privileged status for some time, but our own actions are putting that trust at risk -- as evidenced by our dollar's behavior in the foreign exchange markets. The value of our currency is eventually dependent on confidence.
You are correct in noting the consequences of our debt-backed monetary system, and the Federal Reserve's ability to control (i.e. increase or decrease) our money supply. Practically speaking, however, the money supply doesn't shrink. It's more a question of how quickly it grows. While measuring the growth of money = credit = debt is itself a highly technical exercise with lots of areas for discussion among economists, the bottom line we are seeing the consequences of a tremendous increase in global liquidity, coupled with unrestrained promises and spending by our politicians.
That's a hazardous environment for American workers, savers, and retirees, and we're seeing the inflationary consequences unfold before us in our gas and grocery bills.
For more information about the current dilemma, take a look at David Walker's presentation entitled "Saving our Future Requires Tough Choices Today", available here:
http://www.gao.gov/cghome.htm
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